Time spent watching television ads could fall nearly a quarter by 2027, according to forecast

It’s touch and go for the tube—at least for advertisers.

In the US, time spent with television ads could fall by 24% over the next four years, according to a new forecast from Brian Wieser, a former GroupM exec who is now an industry analyst and author of the Substack Madison and Wall. That includes streaming and good ol’ fashioned television.

Nearly a quarter reduction of inventory is “pretty dramatic,” Wieser told Marketing Brew. “I’m just trying to illustrate an inevitability…There are many sellers of advertising in particular and some marketers who really have their heads in the sand on this.”

Wieser relied on viewership data from Nielsen and penetration data from research firm Antenna, in addition to his own models, for the forecast.

There are a few reasons that help explain the projected dip: As linear television viewership continues to fall, streamers aren’t likely to fully replicate linear’s ad load, meaning there won’t be as much inventory for advertisers to buy.

There are about 12 minutes of ads per hour on linear television, Wieser wrote, while Netflix, Max, and Disney+ have about four minutes of ads per hour. FAST streaming channels, which largely mimic linear television, could provide an opportunity for advertisers, but still represent a small slice of the viewing pie.

Plus, Wieser expects streaming subscribers to largely choose ad-free tiers, even though ad-supported ones are on the rise.

If Wieser’s prediction holds true, advertisers’ share of TV consumption, including streaming, will fall from 13.1% this year to 10.6% by 2027. “No matter how much streaming grows, it can never make up for lost linear ad inventory so long as ad loads remain light and consumers exhibit preferences for ad-free options for the biggest service (i.e., Netflix),” he wrote.

Over this time, he predicts that CPMs will rise only slightly on the whole. But reach, aka trying to get as many impressions as possible, will become more difficult.

“The issue has never been the price of inventory or the supply of inventory. The question has always been ‘can an advertiser satisfy their goals?’…It’s hard now. It’s gonna get dramatically harder,” he said.