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Citizens (and advertisers) in swing states should gird their loins: The 2024 election cycle could end up being the most expensive in American history, according to a report from media agency Assembly.
Political ad spending could reach $12 billion, with the presidential election alone contributing about $3 billion. For context, spend during the 2020 election was expected to be around $11 billion.
A majority of the dollars, about $9 billion, will likely be spent on Senate, House, gubernatorial, and downballot elections. It’s about the same amount spent during the 2022 midterms, only this year, there will be “significantly fewer competitive statewide races,” the report found.
Some of the more competitive downballot elections are happening in Los Angeles and New York, where media is more expensive, Tyler Goldberg, North America director of political strategy at Assembly, told Ad Age.
A separate report from AdImpact released last week put the total figure around $10.2 billion, up from about $9 billion during the 2020 and 2022 cycles. AdImpact has measured about $652 million spent on this cycle’s elections already.
Election spending will both buoy the ad market and drive costs up. Another recent forecast found that US ad revenue is expected to grow 8.1% next year when taking political advertising into account; without it, the market is projected to increase 4.3%.